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Defense manufacturer Lockheed Martin (NYSE:LMT) is in early talks with undersea mining companies to open access to two dormant seabed exploration licenses it has held since the 1980s

The move signals a renewed US push to tap the ocean floor for critical minerals.

The licenses, which cover swaths of the eastern Pacific seabed in international waters, were awarded to Lockheed by US regulators decades ago during a previous wave of interest in deep-sea mining.

Though the projects never progressed to extraction, they are now gaining fresh attention as nations and corporations seek alternative sources of key minerals used in electric vehicles, defense technologies, and clean energy systems.

“We are in early stages of conversations with several companies about giving them access to our licences and allowing them to process those materials,” Frank St. John, Lockheed’s chief operating officer, told the Financial Times.

While St. John declined to quantify the potential value of the deposits, he added that interested parties have “done the homework and determined there is value there.”

Lockheed’s seabed licenses could represent a strategic foothold in a mineral-rich region, containing polymetallic nodules that can hold commercially viable concentrations of key metals.

The timing also coincides with recent executive action from the White House.

USPresident Donald Trump, who returned to office in January, signed an executive order in April asserting US rights to issue mining licenses in international waters and encouraging the stockpiling of seabed metals as strategic resources.

The order bypasses ongoing negotiations at the International Seabed Authority (ISA), the UN agency tasked with regulating deep-sea mining, and instead relies on the 1980 US Deep Seabed Hard Mineral Resources Act as the legal foundation.

It emphasizes the need to “establish the US as a global leader in seabed mineral exploration and development both within and beyond national jurisdiction.” While the US has not ratified the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea — the treaty from which the ISA derives its authority — it has signed a 1994 agreement recognizing the treaty’s seabed provisions and operates its own permitting system through the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

Lockheed said it welcomes the renewed policy attention. “We believe the US has the opportunity to develop a gold standard for commercial recovery of nodules in an environmentally responsible manner.”

Court upholds TMC disclosures on deep-dea mining risks

Lockheed is not alone in navigating the legal uncertainties surrounding seabed mining.

The Metals Company (TMC) (NASDAQ:TMC), a deep-sea mining startup, recently survived a shareholder lawsuit alleging it had misled investors about the environmental impacts and financial backing of its operations.

US District Judge Eric Komitee dismissed the claims, ruling that the company’s comparisons to conventional mining methods were not misleading, even if deep-sea mining still carries environmental risks.

“It is eminently possible that (1) deep-sea mining causes meaningful environmental harm, and yet (2) such harm is significantly less than the harm caused by existing methods,” the judge wrote.

TMC had disclosed in filings that deep-sea mining could result in damage and that the regulatory path remained uncertain. Its legal win may encourage others — like Lockheed — to proceed more openly with their seabed plans, albeit cautiously.

Deep-sea mining industry cautiously awakens

The growing pursuit of potentially extracting resources from the world’s oceans comes at a critical juncture for the seabed-mining industry. For decades, a de facto moratorium on mining in international waters has been in place due to regulatory uncertainty and environmental concerns.

The ISA has issued more than 30 exploratory permits, but has yet to finalize commercial extraction rules. That delay has prompted frustration from some parties, while drawing calls from others for a pause or outright ban.

Currently, the ISA is holding key assemblies in Jamaica to hash out the long-awaited mining code to regulate commercial activity on the ocean floor with provisions for environmental safeguards, royalties, and tax obligations.

But a growing number of countries — 37 at last count — have pushed for a precautionary pause, citing risks to deep-sea ecosystems that remain largely uncharted. Scientists warn that mining these habitats could cause irreversible damage.

In 2023, Lockheed appeared to step back from the sector by selling two UK-sponsored exploration licenses in the Pacific, a move interpreted by analysts as signaling reduced confidence in deep-sea mining.

However, its retained US licenses suggest it never fully exited the space.

The Trump administration’s executive order marks the most assertive US step yet to undermine the ISA’s multilateral approach, raising fears among diplomats that the agency may lose legitimacy.

China, which has also invested heavily in seabed mining, responded sharply to the move.

“The US authorization violates international law and harms the overall interests of the international community,” Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Guo Jiakun said earlier this year.

Securities Disclosure: I, Giann Liguid, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

This post appeared first on investingnews.com

Investor Insight

With a clear vision for value creation in the energy transition and precious metals sectors, Surface Metals has strategically assembled one of North America’s most compelling project portfolios. Anchored by a high-potential gold asset and a robust lithium pipeline, the company is focused on discovery-driven growth, resource development, and unlocking long-term shareholder value through exploration, partnerships and potential M&A.

Overview

Surface Metals (CSE:SUR,OTCQB:SURMF) is a diversified exploration and development company with a portfolio spanning precious metals and lithium, targeting the growing global need for electrification metals and gold as a financial hedge.

The company’s flagship Cimarron gold project in Nevada is an underexplored, high-grade oxide gold system with historic drilling by majors including Newmont and Echo Bay. Simultaneously, Surface Metals, through its subsidiary ACME Lithium US, is developing lithium projects across Nevada and Manitoba, Canada. These include the Clayton Valley lithium brine asset (with a defined resource), the claystone-hosted Fish Lake Valley project, and the pegmatite-rich Shatford and Cat-Euclid claims in partnership with Snow Lake Resources.

Surface Metals’ projects are located in prolific mining jurisdictions in Nevada and Manitoba

With a foundational 43-101 resource, compelling exploration upside, and strategic positioning next to producing and near-producing lithium assets, Surface Metals is building value from the ground up.

Company Highlights

  • Dual Focus Portfolio: Combines precious metals and energy transition minerals, including a 90 percent stake in the Cimarron gold project and multiple lithium assets in Nevada and Manitoba.
  • Gold Asset with Legacy Database: Cimarron contains over 190 historical drill holes with high-grade intercepts and a non-compliant historic resource of 50,000+ oz gold, open in multiple directions.
  • NI 43-101 Lithium Resource: The Clayton Valley project hosts an inferred lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) resource of 302,900 tonnes, backed by geophysics, drilling and pumping test data.
  • Strategic Lithium Locations: Lithium claims are adjacent to Albemarle’s Silver Peak mine and Ioneer’s Rhyolite Ridge development in Nevada, and contiguous to the Tanco mine in Manitoba.
  • Experienced Leadership: Led by resource sector veterans with a track record of successful exits, technical development and public company management.
  • Energy Transition Strategy: Well-positioned to benefit from macro tailwinds in lithium demand and US domestic critical minerals supply chain policies.

Key Projects

Cimarron Gold Project

The Cimarron gold project is a high-grade epithermal gold exploration project located at the north end of the San Antonio Mountains in the historic San Antonio (Cimarron) mining district, approximately 18 miles north of Tonopah, Nevada. Surface Metals holds a 90 percent interest in the project through its US subsidiary, Surface Metals US Inc. The project comprises 31 lode claims and is characterized by shallow, structurally controlled, low-sulfidation oxide gold mineralization.

Cimarron lies at the intersection of two regionally significant gold trends: the northwest-trending Walker Lane Belt and a north-northeast trend hosting Round Mountain (Kinross), Bullfrog, Goldfield, Manhattan and Gold Hill deposits. Notably, Round Mountain—located just 28 miles north—has produced more than 15 million ounces of gold. The project benefits from excellent infrastructure, including nearby power, road access and historic drill pads.

Aerial view of the project property

From 1980 to 2004, significant historical exploration was conducted by major operators such as Newmont, Echo Bay, Romarco and Budge. More than 190 drill holes define three main mineralized zones: West, Central and East. Echo Bay’s internal reports (1987) estimated a non-NI 43-101 compliant resource of over 50,000 oz of gold hosted in approximately 1.5 million tons (Mt), with roughly 80 percent of the ounces located in the West Zone. Historic high-grade intercepts include:

  • 4.46 grams per ton (g/t) gold over 11 m
  • 4.49 g/t gold over 23 m
  • 3.94 g/t gold over 46 m

Mineralization remains open in multiple directions, and surface sampling has returned anomalous gold values across a wide area, indicating strong potential for both lateral and vertical extensions. The mineralized system features strong structural controls and is interpreted to be part of a shallow, boiling zone epithermal system.

Surface Metals is currently finalizing its 2025/2026 exploration interpretation and strategy to potentially expand the known mineralized envelope and produce an NI 43-101 compliant resource estimate.

Clayton Valley Lithium Brine Project

The Clayton Valley Project, held through Surface’s subsidiary ACME Lithium US, is located in Esmeralda County, home to the only operating lithium brine mine in the United States: Albemarle’s Silver Peak mine. ACME’s 100 percent interest covers 122 placer claims totaling 2,440 acres in one of the world’s most prolific lithium-producing basins.

The project hosts a defined NI 43-101 inferred resource of 302,900 tons of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE), based on extensive geophysical surveys (gravity and HSAMT), Phase 1 and Phase 2 drilling, and a 10-day pump test. The brines are hosted in interbedded silts, clays, sand and gravel, with lithium concentrations in brine ranging from 38 to 130 mg/L. Borehole DH-1 confirmed brine presence from 85 meters to 370 meters, with increased concentrations in basal gravels and lacustrine tuff layers.

Phase 2 drilling (DH-1A and TW-1) reached a depth of 1,940 ft, intersecting the Lower Gravel Unit (LGU), interpreted as the main brine aquifer. Pack testing and zone-isolated sampling from the LGU showed lithium values up to 71 mg/L. Permeability tests demonstrated favorable aquifer transmissivity. The presence of bicarbonate-rich groundwater indicates typical Clayton Valley geochemistry, conducive to direct lithium extraction (DLE) processing. Surface is currently evaluating DLE partnerships and pilot testing, with SLB (formerly Schlumberger) having already demonstrated a working DLE unit in the region.

Fish Lake Valley Lithium Claystone Project

The Fish Lake Valley (FLV) project is a 100 percent owned sedimentary lithium claystone asset covering 207 claims across 4,002 acres in Esmeralda County. The project is strategically adjacent to Ioneer’s fully permitted and DOE-funded Rhyolite Ridge lithium-boron project, with expected commencement of construction in 2025 and offtake agreements with Ford, Panasonic and Toyota.

FLV hosts lithium values up to 1,418 parts per million (ppm) in surface samples, with boron anomalies as high as 1,964 ppm—both strong indicators of favorable sedimentary lithium potential. Two major field sampling programs (2022 and 2023) confirmed the widespread presence of lithium-bearing illite-smectite clays. Phase 2 sampling utilized Asterra’s satellite analytics to identify new mineralized zones.

Geophysical surveys, including gravity and HSAMT, confirm the presence of a deep down-dropped basin with clay-rich horizons extending to over 1.3 km depth. Interpreted illite-smectite units, comparable to Rhyolite Ridge’s host rocks, are present throughout the basin. The project is fully permitted for drilling, with multiple high-priority drill targets identified for validation and resource definition. Surface is actively seeking a JV or strategic partner to fund and advance this asset.

Shatford, Birse and Cat-Euclid Lake Lithium Projects

Surface Metals, in partnership with Snow Lake Resources (Nasdaq:LITM), holds a 49 percent interest in a 17,000-acre pegmatite exploration portfolio in southeastern Manitoba, contiguous with the Tanco mine, Canada’s only operating LCT (lithium-cesium-tantalum) pegmatite mine, owned by Sinomine.

The Shatford Lake project comprises 21 claims (8,883 acres), Birse Lake adds another 10 claims (5,196 acres), and the Cat-Euclid block includes six claims (2,930 acres). The claims straddle the Greer-Shatford Shear Zone, a major 15-km structural corridor hosting known pegmatites, favorable host rocks and historic lithium occurrences.

Snow Lake’s 2024 field campaign discovered a 25 m to 30 m wide tantalite-bearing pegmatite on the Cat-Euclid block and identified multiple new pegmatite swarms under heavy overburden. Drilling at Shatford Lake (2023) included eight holes totaling 3,280 meters, intersecting pegmatites in six holes. 3D modeling of airborne magnetic data correlated structural dilation zones with pegmatite emplacement, prime targets for lithium mineralization. Multiple new drill targets have been identified for follow-up in 2025. The joint venture provides a low-cost pathway to potential lithium discoveries near a fully integrated lithium processing facility.

Management Team

Stephen Hanson – President, CEO and Director

With over 28 years of global experience in finance and corporate development, Stephen Hanson has held executive roles across mining, energy and resource sectors. He has successfully executed M&A deals and created exit strategies for multiple public and private companies. Hanson’s focus at Surface Metals is on unlocking value through resource expansion and strategic partnerships.

Zara Kanji – CFO and Corporate Secretary

A CPA with deep experience in financial reporting for junior mining companies, Zara Kanji oversees compliance, budgeting, and financial strategy. She brings more than two decades of expertise in audit, taxation and advisory for public entities in Canada.

Vivian Katsuris – Director

A capital markets specialist with over 28 years of experience, Vivian Katsuris has served in executive and board roles for numerous TSXV and CSE-listed companies. Her expertise spans brokerage, corporate governance and strategic advisory.

Yannis Tsitos – Director

Formerly with BHP Billiton for 19 years, Yannis Tsitos has decades of exploration and M&A experience across multiple continents. He is currently the president of Goldsource Mines and sits on several public company boards.

William Feyerabend – Qualified Person (US Projects)

A certified professional geologist and NI 43-101 Qualified Person, William Feyerabend has authored multiple technical reports on lithium assets and has decades of exploration experience in the US, Mexico and South America.

Dane Bridge – Technical Advisor

With over 45 years in global mineral exploration and mine evaluation, Dane Bridge provides strategic technical oversight across Surface’s exploration assets.

Matt Banta – Technical Advisor

A specialist in hydrology and lithium brine systems, Matt Banta brings over 20 years of field and analytical experience with a focus on lithium extraction and water resource modeling.

This post appeared first on investingnews.com

The resource investing community descended on Boca Raton, Florida, during the first full week of July for another edition of the Rule Symposium, hosted by veteran investor and speculator Rick Rule.

The five day event featured an illustrious array of speakers, panelists and companies sharing a wealth of investor knowledge. As in years past, gold remained a top focus, with many presenters stressing the value it offers investors.

Opening the conference, Rule provided a sobering overview of the current economic trajectory. He urged investors to set aside political narratives and instead focus on the raw arithmetic of America’s financial condition.

“It’s not about politics, it’s about math,” said Rule.

He pointed to three figures that define the US financial landscape: US$141 trillion in aggregate private net worth, a US$27.71 trillion GDP and a personal savings rate of just 4 percent. That’s set against mounting obligations — US$36.6 trillion in federal debt held by bondholders and over US$100 trillion in unfunded federal entitlements.

Rule cautioned that the imbalance between assets and liabilities points to a looming reckoning, potentially echoing the inflationary erosion of the 1970s, when the US dollar lost 75 percent of its purchasing power.

“There’s no way out of this without reducing the value of the dollar,” he told the audience. “(The) increase in gold (prices) will mirror the decrease in purchasing power of the US dollar.’

To hedge against this risk, Rule encouraged attendees to adopt a more self-reliant approach.

He advised listeners to question government guarantees, focus on building personal financial resilience and consider investing in inflation-sensitive assets such as gold and silver. “The math doesn’t lie — it’s time to prepare, not just react,” said Rule. ”I need you not to panic when the time is right, but rather to pounce.”

Watch a recap of key Rule Symposium takeaways.

Tailwinds turning to headwinds

In addition to strategically allocating to gold, geopolitical uncertainty was as a key theme at the Rule Symposium.

During his presentation “Back to the Old Drawing Board: First Principles and the Lost Art of Investing Through Crisis,” author and publisher Grant Williams made the case that longstanding tailwinds — globalization, demographic expansion and low interest rates — have reversed, giving way to persistent uncertainty.

 

Williams provides an overview of shifting market dynamics.

He traced the last four decades of wealth creation to a rare alignment of forces that pushed asset prices, particularly US equities, sharply higher. However, since 2020, a new macro regime has emerged, defined by tighter monetary policy, rising geopolitical risk and fading confidence in the US dollar.

Like many speakers at the Rule Symposium, Williams also underscored the massive gold purchases central banks are making. During Q1 of this year, central banks added 244 metric tons of gold to their official reserves, a 24 percent increase above the five year quarterly average, according to World Gold Council data.

For Williams, this shift signals growing concern within the financial system — a trend investors shouldn’t overlook.

“When central banks are exchanging their reserves for gold in record amounts, if they feel the sudden urgent need to own more gold, you better believe that we should feel that too,” he noted.

The expert went on to illustrate how major economic and societal cycles are converging, suggesting more volatility ahead. A live poll of the audience taken during his session revealed growing unease among attendees, with many already adjusting their portfolios and long-term goals. In response, Williams called for a return to key principles: scarcity, durability, resilience, trust, patience and a clear-eyed acceptance of uncertainty.

These, he said, should now anchor any sound investment approach. He urged Rule Symposium attendees to shift their mindset from chasing returns to preserving capital by reducing overexposure to US equities, diversifying by geography and asset class and focusing on businesses with real staying power.

The investment playbook of the past no longer fits the world we’re entering, he stressed.

Navigating what Williams calls an “age of headwinds” will require humility, discipline and a willingness to rethink what truly creates and protects wealth.

Hard assets set to shine

Economist, author and former Wall Street executive Dr. Nomi Prins laid out a case for what she calls the “real asset uprising,” a global shift in value and power driven by hard assets like gold, silver, copper, uranium and rare earths.

Drawing on her experience in high-level banking and her current work in the mining sector, Prins argued that rising geopolitical friction, shifting trade dynamics and financial system strain are fueling a renewed focus on tangible resources. She pointed to surging institutional interest in commodities, noting that Wall Street deal flow tied to real assets is up 24 percent year-on-year, while hiring in commodity finance roles has increased by 15 percent.

Gold, once dismissed on trading desks, is now seen as a strategic monetary tool.

According to Prins, the yellow metal will not replace the US dollar as the reserve currency, but it will play a central role in bilateral trade and power negotiations. Gold’s jurisdiction — where it is stored and mined — is now more important than ever, she explained, as nations seek to shield assets from sanctions and instability.

Silver, copper, uranium and rare earths are all finding support through similar structural tailwinds, Prins pointed out.

Silver demand is rising due to its industrial applications, and limited aboveground supply is driving long-term contracts.

For its part, copper has become so strategically important that the US is conducting a Section 232 national security investigation into its supply chain, a move historically reserved for defense resources. Major buyers like China and India are stockpiling copper in anticipation of supply constraints.

Uranium is also surging back into focus, driven by bipartisan support for nuclear energy. Legislation and executive orders are fast tracking uranium permitting and enrichment, with utility demand expected to outstrip supply.

Rare earths = real assets

Prins highlighted rare earths as a critical new front in the ongoing global shift in value and power.

‘Rare earths are intrinsic to the nation,’ she said, pointing to their essential role in defense, electronics and energy technologies. With 85 percent of processing controlled by China, the US has launched Section 232 investigations to assess domestic vulnerabilities — reports on copper and rare earths are expected this fall.

Prins described her decision to join the board of a rare earths company as a natural extension of her belief in physical assets: “It’s not just about the asset — it’s about controlling the asset, the processing and the movement.”

That theme underpins the investment case: security of supply, efficient processing and strategic jurisdiction are key to value creation. She also noted a dramatic capital rotation, saying that US$330 billion has exited bonds over the past year, while US$230 billion has flowed into commodities.

“Wall Street is following the real asset story,” Prins emphasized.

 

Rule sits down with Porter Stansberry to discuss his investment strategy.

Prins then said real upside now lies not just in owning resources, but in having processing capability.

New technologies, like advanced rare earths separation methods, are increasing economic viability and attracting private capital. “Where private money and public power combine, that’s where the investment opportunity is,” she said.

With key policy announcements and trade shifts looming in the fall, she warned investors this is a “very critical time” in the real asset uprising. For Prins, the message is clear: investors, policymakers and mining leaders must position accordingly, because, in today’s world, “whoever controls the ground controls the game.’

Securities Disclosure: I, Georgia Williams, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

This post appeared first on investingnews.com

After a relatively quiet week for the S&P 500, we’re seeing some interesting shifts in sector dynamics. Let’s dive into the latest rankings, RRG analysis, and what it means for our portfolio strategy.

Sector Shifts and RRG Insights: Materials on the Move

The big news this week is the ascent of the Materials sector, which has muscled its way into the top five at the expense of the Utilities sector.

The rest of the top five remained steady, but we’re seeing some movement in the lower ranks as well. Consumer Discretionary made a notable jump from #9 to #7, pushing Consumer Staples and Real Estate down a notch each. Energy and Health Care continue to bring up the rear at #10 and #11, respectively.

  1. (1) Technology – (XLK)
  2. (2) Industrials – (XLI)
  3. (3) Communication Services – (XLC)
  4. (4) Financials – (XLF)
  5. (6) Materials – (XLB)*
  6. (5) Utilities – (XLU)*
  7. (9) Consumer Discretionary – (XLY)*
  8. (7) Consumer Staples – (XLP)*
  9. (8) Real-Estate – (XLRE)*
  10. (10) Energy – (XLE)
  11. (11) Healthcare – (XLV)

Weekly RRG

The weekly Relative Rotation Graph (RRG) gives us a broader perspective on sector trends. Technology continues to dominate, firmly entrenched in the leading quadrant, no surprises there. Industrials is showing stability with a short tail in the leading quadrant, indicating a consistent relative uptrend.

Communication Services, however, is raising some eyebrows. It’s lurking in the weakening quadrant with a short tail, suggesting a stable relative uptrend but with negative momentum. Financials are teetering on the edge of the lagging quadrant, a move that demands attention. Materials, despite its rise in the rankings, is actually in the lagging quadrant on the weekly RRG. You will see why it made its way into the top 5 on the daily RRG.

Daily RRG

On the daily RRG, we get a more nuanced picture of short-term sector movements:

  • Materials (XLB) is the star of the show, crossing into the leading quadrant and standing alone in that coveted space.
  • Financials (XLF) is showing weakness, rolling over and heading back towards the lagging quadrant — confirming what we saw on the weekly chart.
  • Communication Services is on the verge of crossing into the lagging quadrant, a sign that is not great for its current #3 ranking.
  • Industrials is flexing its muscles, approaching the leading quadrant with a positive heading.
  • Technology, while rotating into the weakening quadrant, still has ample room to bounce back into leading territory.

Technology

The tech train continues to roll, breaking through resistance around 240 and maintaining its upward trajectory in both price and relative strength. The RS line is pushing higher after a clean breakout from its falling trend, a bullish sign for the sector leader.

Industrials

XLI is following through nicely on both price and relative strength charts. The raw RS line has established a new higher low, dragging the RS ratio higher. In my opinion, this sector looks rock-solid.

Communication Services

Here’s where things get dicey. XLC is clinging to its breakout above 105, but last week’s decline is testing that former resistance as new support. The raw RS line breaking below rising support is a warning sign that this sector could be in for a bumpy ride.

Financials

Similar to Communications Services, Financials has retreated to test old resistance as support. The raw RS line looks even worse here, having broken out of its rising channel weeks ago. Both RRG lines are flirting with the 100 level; a further push into the lagging quadrant seems likely.

Materials

XLB is showing some muscle, breaking out of its falling channel and taking out recent highs. The raw RS line is pushing against falling resistance — if it can break through, we could see a significant turnaround in the RRG lines, confirming the sector’s newfound strength.

Portfolio Performance

Now, for the part that might sting a bit, the portfolio drawdown is ongoing. It’s something trend followers need to learn to live with. Currently, the portfolio is down about 2% for the year, while the S&P 500 is up over 6%. That puts us roughly 8% behind the benchmark YTD.

It’s not a comfortable position, but it’s part of the game. Trend-following strategies often lag in choppy or rapidly changing markets. The key is to stay disciplined and trust in the long-term efficacy of our approach.

#StayAlert and have a great week, Julius


Adrian Day, president of Adrian Day Asset Management, shares his latest thoughts on gold.

He also discusses the opportunity in gold stocks, saying that while as a group they’re up 55 percent in last year, valuation metrics are lower than they were two years ago.

Securities Disclosure: I, Charlotte McLeod, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

This post appeared first on investingnews.com

Has silver’s moment finally arrived?

Precious metals analyst Ted Butler believes the answer is ‘yes.’

‘I think this is the moment, because we broke through technically what was a really important level — that US$35, US$36 (per ounce) level,’ he said. He sees a clear path for silver to outperform gold.

Securities Disclosure: I, Charlotte McLeod, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

This post appeared first on investingnews.com

Mani Alkhafaji, vice president of corporate of development and investor relations at First Majestic Silver (TSX:AG,NYSE:AG) discusses silver’s recent price rise.

He notes that the gold-silver mining ratio is at seven to one, while the price ratio is at 90 to one.

‘That tells us silver needs to play catch up to collapse that ratio,’ he said.

Securities Disclosure: I, Charlotte McLeod, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

This post appeared first on investingnews.com

Join Dave as he reviews three common candle patterns traders can use to identify potential turning points. From bullish engulfing patterns to evening star patterns, Dave gives insights on how to leverage these powerful candle signals to anticipate market shifts. He also shows combining candle patterns with conventional technical analysis tools can help improve success rates.

This video originally premiered on July 14, 2025. Watch on StockCharts’ dedicated David Keller page!

Previously recorded videos from Dave are available at this link.

Bitcoin ($BTCUSD) is riding a wave of surging optimism, smashing past $112k as retail and institutional capital pour into the cryptocurrency. Some say the market has grown euphoric, and that a sharp pullback may be lurking around the corner. Others believe this is just the beginning of another leg higher.

A few key questions to guide your analysis: What does $BTCUSD’s history tell us about breakouts above major resistance after a prolonged period of sideways movement? If it’s the start of another move higher, how can you project an upside target? And, if it reverses, where could support levels come into play?

What $BTCUSD’s History Reveals About Breakouts and Big Rallies

Let’s begin by taking a look at a 3-year weekly chart.

FIGURE 1. WEEKLY CHART OF $BTCUSD. Note the crypto’s impressive rallies after clearing resistance following a prolonged period of sideways trading.

In 2023, $BTCUSD traded sideways for six months, repeatedly failing to break above resistance around $31k. But once it did, the crypto soared more than 126% before a major pullback.

A similar pattern unfolded in 2024: seven months in a wide range, unable to clear resistance between $71k and $73k. When $BTCUSD finally broke out in November, it staged a parabolic move, rallying nearly 47% before pulling back again, setting another key resistance zone that brings it to overhead resistance range between $110k–$112k.

So this answers the question posed about $BTCUSD’s historical tendencies after breaking above a prolonged range. Historically, the crypto tends to stage an outsized run once it clears critical resistance. But will it happen this time around? If so, how can you estimate a potential upside target? And if the breakout fails, where might $BTCUSD find support?

Seasonality Trends: $BTCUSD’s Strongest Months

Before looking at a daily chart, let’s look at $BTCUSD’s seasonality chart going back 10 years. If you’re curious as to how the crypto has performed during the summer months, maybe this can help.

FIGURE 2. 10-YEAR SEASONALITY CHART OF $BTCUSD. Most months on average have been quite strong for the asset, but October’s performance has been strong, with an average seasonal return of 21%.

According to its seasonality performance, July is arguably strong with a favorable positive close rate (70%) and return (9.6%). However, October is the crypto’s strongest month, with an 89% positive close rate and an average return of 21%. Over the last 10 years, $BTCUSD’s performance has been volatile, which accounts for the outsize returns on this chart. While seasonal tendencies don’t guarantee a repeat, knowing the general bullish/bearish seasonality context can help inform your analysis and trading decisions.

Now, let’s look at a daily chart to find entry points or estimate an upside target while identifying support, should its breakout fail to follow through.

$BTCUSD Breaks Critical $112K Resistance

FIGURE 3. DAILY CHART OF $BTCUSD. The asset just broke above critical resistance. If you have a position, now’s the time to estimate potential price targets.

$BTCUSD just broke the critical resistance level of $112k. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is indicating strong momentum, easing into an overbought reading. While there’s no way to fundamentally determine the crypto’s upside target, one technical method is to use a measured move by taking the height of the prior range and adding it to the top of the range (or the breakout level; this varies by trader).

Calculating an Upside Target Using a Measured Move Approach

Measuring the range from the support area around $98k up to $110–112k (we’ll settle for $110k), you can project that distance of $12k above the top level of the breakout range, which implies a potential target near $124k, more or less.

$110k breakout + $12k range height = $122k–$124k target, depending on entry.

However, note that some traders don’t wait for a 100% measured move before taking profits. Some will exit positions as soon as a 60% move has occurred, but that really depends on the trader.

Key Support Levels to Watch if the Breakout Fails

Now, if $BTCUSD fails to follow through and reverses, you can reasonably expect support at roughly these three levels:

  • The breakout level near $112k.
  • A strong historical support level at around $110k.
  • Another support level within the previous trading range (shaded red) near $100k, which coincides with concentrated levels of trading activity, according to the Volume-by-Price (the horizontal volume bars on the left side of the chart).

If $BTCUSD falls below the previous trading range, that is, below $98k, then the current rally is likely over.

What to Do Now

Ideally, a trader’s entry point would have been at $112k. Considering that some platforms allow fractional lots of $BTCUSD, some people may choose to enter smaller positions, as a fractional position would minimize risk and reward.

If you already have a position in $BTCUSD, put it in your ChartLists, and set a price alert at $124k or any measured move percentage below that 100% target level (like 60% of the measured move would be at $119k).

If the breakout fails, expect a near-term bounce between $110k and $112k. However, a move lower toward $100k or $98k would likely signal an end to the bullish thesis. Traders might even consider placing a stop a few points below $98k to avoid the likelihood of further downside.

At the Close

$BTCUSD has a history of explosive moves after clearing major resistance, but it can just as easily blindside you with a sudden reversal. That’s why it’s crucial to keep upside and downside levels in mind. Seasonality also favors the bulls, with most months delivering favorable returns. Add the crypto to your ChartLists and set price alerts to track whether your upside target is hit, or whether downside levels signal either an early bounce or a failed rally.


Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

After soaring to all-time highs during the first quarter of 2025, how could gold follow up during Q2?

By setting new price records, of course.

Tariff threats, financial uncertainty and geopolitical tensions all fueled the yellow metal’s price rise during the second quarter of the year, which saw gold reach the US$3,500 per ounce mark for the first time.

While central banks continued to make gold purchases during the period, so too did retail investors, who shied away from US treasuries in favor of a more tangible safe-haven asset class.

What happened to the gold price in Q2?

Gold had an impressive run during the first quarter of the year, steadily rising from US$2,658.04 on January 2 to US$3,138.24 on April 2, leaving investors to wonder how much more gas was available for Q2.

Gold price, April 1 to July 10, 2025.

Chart via Trading Economics.

The price of gold started the second quarter on a downswing, falling below the US$3,000 mark by April 8, but quickly found momentum and soared to its quarterly high of US$3,434.40 on April 21.

It broke through the US$3,500 threshold briefly during the day’s trading session.

However, the gains were temporary, and gold once again fell; by May 1, it had dropped to US$3,237.30.

The metal saw a slight rebound to US$3,400.70 before the May meeting of the US Federal Reserve, but it came under pressure after that and had fallen to US$3,185 by May 14.

The end of May saw more tailwinds for the gold price, pushing it first to US$3,358 by May 23, then to US$3,381.70 by June 2. By the middle of the month, it was back to trading above US$3,400. Since that time, the precious metal has remained mainly above the US$3,300 level, closing the quarter at US$3,303.30 on June 30.

Tariff uncertainty helps boost gold price

The biggest story from the first quarter has carried over into the second quarter: tariffs.

Since the start of his second term in the Oval Office, US President Donald Trump has applied the threat of tariffs like a cudgel in trade talks with other countries. His long-held belief is that other nations, even longtime allies, are benefiting from trade with the US, while the US itself is facing detrimental effects.

During the first quarter of the year, the Trump administration levied tariff threats against Canada and Mexico. While most of his promised import fees were dialed back at the eleventh hour, a 25 percent tax was still applied to imports of Canadian steel and aluminum, as well as non-CUSMA-compliant automobiles and parts.

On April 2, Trump announced a broader set of tariffs on nearly every country in the world, regardless of trade status with the US. Dubbed “Liberation Day” by Trump, the executive order applied a baseline 10 percent fee to all imports from most countries to the US, plus significant reciprocal measures against countries with the largest trade deficits.

The new measures, set to be implemented on April 9, created panic among investors, causing a global market meltdown. Fear also spread to US debt holders, such as Japan and Canada, which began to sell US treasuries, pushing up the 10 year bond yield. Spooked investors rapidly flocked to gold, pushing the price to record highs above US$3,400.

“The bond market understands that Washington is so broken and the debt situation is so bad,’ he explained. ‘It varies in degrees compared to other countries, but everybody’s in the same boat. That’s why gold all of a sudden … gold is the safe haven now, even more than treasuries. And I don’t think a lot of people every thought they’d see that again.’

Ultimately, the stock market turmoil and the shift in bond market sentiment brought about a quick reversal from Trump, who paused his tariff plans for 90 days. Although the gold price showed signs of easing as market participants calmed, the metal remained high through the end of the quarter as uncertainty remained near the surface.

The pause was set to expire on July 9, but the White House announced a last-minute extension delaying the implementation of the tariffs on all but 14 countries, including Japan, South Korea and South Africa.

However, there are still underlying concerns.

The US-China trade war, which raged through much of the first half of the year, was put on hold on May 12 after tariffs between the two largest economies reached their peak, adding headwinds to the gold price. Up to that point, the US had levied a 145 percent import tax on Chinese goods while China had applied a 125 percent tax on US imports.

Although tensions have stabilized since the pause, on July 7, China warned the US against reigniting conflicts. China also said it would retaliate against any country that makes deals with the US to China’s detriment.

Geopolitical tensions erupt in the Middle East

Financial uncertainty was a key driver of the gold price through the second quarter as investors sought to diversify their portfolios amid a chaotic investment landscape, but it wasn’t the only factor.

Geopolitical tensions also played a significant role, particularly in the Middle East.

With the Israel-Gaza conflict now past 18 months, the larger fear was that it would spill into a broader regional war.

Those fears were stoked in late May, when there was speculation that Israel was preparing to attack nuclear facilities in Iran. The news helped pull gold out of monthly lows as more investors sought the safety of the metal.

Ultimately, the speculation was true — on June 12, Israel launched attacks against key nuclear sites in Iran, causing Iran to launch counterattacks against targets in Israel and providing further tailwinds for the gold price.

What’s driving demand for gold?

Other support for the gold price came from continued purchases from central banks.

According to World Gold Council data, central banks bought 244 metric tons of gold in Q1. The amount was 24 percent higher than the five year quarterly average, but 9 percent lower than the average from the last three years.

The largest first quarter gold buyers were the National Bank of Poland, which added 49 metric tons of the metal to its holdings, increasing its total to 497 metric tons. This was followed by the People’s Bank of China, which purchased 13 metric tons, bringing its reported gold reserves to 2,292 metric tons

In another report, the World Gold Council indicates that despite high prices, central banks continued to buy gold in May, albeit at a slightly reduced pace, with a net 20 metric tons entering their reserves.

But it’s not just central banks that are picking up gold.

“In the past, there has been relatively little involvement, even to now, from western retail investors in this move. This has been overwhelmingly led by central banks and large funds,” Temple said.

However, he noted a shift in buying on the back of wider interest, pointing to gold’s popularity at Costco Wholesale (NASDAQ:COST), although he noted, ‘So far, this hasn’t moved the needle significantly.’

Temple added, “Traditionally the big needle mover when you’ve got these larger swings in markets and market sentiment has come from investors who are buying exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and buying the larger gold stocks, and then ultimately working their way down the food chain and buying the better exploration stories. We finally started in recent months to see some of that where it’s deserved. There have been some really nice moves.’

This idea is echoed in the World Gold Council’s June ETF report, which indicates that ETF flows ended the first half of 2025 with the highest semiannual inflows since the first half of 2020.

The North American movement led the way, with more than US$4.8 billion entering the market in June, bringing the total for the first half of the year to US$21 billion. This was followed by US$2 billion in inflows in Europe, with its first half total reaching US$6 billion. Asian markets added US$610 million with a first-half record of US$11 billion.

Gold price forecast for 2025

The expectation is that the factors that drove the gold price in H1 are unlikely to go away soon.

Trump continues to kick the tariff question down the road. And although a ceasefire has been called between Israel and Iran, tensions in the region are still high. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine is ongoing, with Russia escalating attacks at the start of July, to the point of invoking Trump’s ire.

“We were thinking that by the time you got into June, July, August, not only would you have some seasonal weakness, but you’d also have a situation where financial markets might have calmed down and taken a less pessimistic outlook to the economy, simply because the initial shock of Trump policies was in there and had been digested. What we’re seeing is a prolongation of that shock period.’

Financial uncertainty and conflicts were a theme echoed by Kandoshko.

She pointed to the July 9 — now August 1 — deadline for tariffs as a potential inflection point.

“This could spark another rally in gold prices if trade tensions escalate. I have a feeling that the existing tariffs will gradually push prices up, which might lead the Fed to hold off on cutting rates. In the grand scheme of things, higher inflation is likely to boost gold demand, especially from central banks,” Kandoshko said.

She also believes a weak US dollar will likely be a boon for gold, making it more attractive to overseas buyers.

Securities Disclosure: I, Dean Belder, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

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