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As Starbucks aims to bring back customers and assuage investors with its turnaround strategy, it is also winning over its store managers with promises to add more seating inside cafes and promote internally.

Since CEO Brian Niccol’s first week at the company, he’s been pledging to bring the company “back to Starbucks” to lift sluggish sales. That goal was in full view at the company’s Leadership Experience, a three-day event in Las Vegas for more than 14,000 store leaders this week.

Starbucks unveiled a new coffee called the 1971 Roast, a callback to the year that its first location opened at Pike Place in Seattle. The finalists at Starbucks’ first-ever Global Barista Championships referred to “back to Starbucks” as they prepared drinks for judges. Even the Wi-Fi password was “backtostarbucks!”

To investors, Niccol has already presented a multi-part strategy that involves retooling the company’s marketing strategy, improving staffing in cafes, fixing the chain’s mobile app issues and making its locations cozier. The company also laid off roughly 1,100 corporate workers earlier this year, saying it aimed to operate more efficiently and reduce redundancies.

Starbucks shares have climbed nearly 20% since April and are trading just shy of where they were after a nearly 25% spike the day Niccol was announced as CEO.

While Starbucks has taken major steps to win back customers and Wall Street, it’s also trying to regain faith among its employees. Staffers have had concerns about hours and workloads for years, sparking a broad union push across the U.S.

To excite the chain’s store managers, Starbucks executives’ pitch this week focused on giving them more control. Before launching new drinks, like a protein-packed cold foam, the company is first testing them in five stores to gain feedback from baristas.

When the chain increases its staffing this summer, managers will have more input on how many baristas they need. And next year, most North American stores will add an assistant manager to their rosters.

“You are the leaders of Starbucks. Your focus on the customer is critical. Your leadership is critical. And as you return to your coffeehouses, please remember: coffee, community, opportunity, all the good that follows,” Niccol said on Tuesday.

Niccol’s “back to Starbucks” strategy centers on the idea that the company’s culture has faltered. Its Leadership Experience, typically held every couple of years, was the first since 2019 — three CEOs ago.

“We are a business of connection and humanity,” Niccol said on Tuesday afternoon, addressing a crowd of more than 14,000 managers. “Great people make great things happen.”

As more customers order their lattes via the company’s app, its cafes have lost their identity as a “third place” for people to hang out and sip their drinks.

To return to Starbucks’ prior culture, the company is unwinding previous decisions — like removing seats from its cafes. In recent years, the chain has removed 30,000 seats from its locations. Those renovations have irritated both customers and employees; the manager of Niccol’s local Starbucks in Newport Beach, California, even asked him to remove her store from its renovation list because she wanted to keep the seating, according to Niccol.

“We’re going to put those seats back in,” Niccol said, bringing a big wave of applause from the audience.

He earned more applause from the audience when discussing the chain’s plans to promote internally as it eventually adds 10,000 more locations in the U.S.

Although historically roughly 60% of Starbucks store managers have been internal promotions, the company wants to raise that to 90% for its retail leadership roles. Thousands of new cafes means 1,000 more district managers, 100 regional directors and 14 regional vice presidents for the company — and more upward career mobility for its store leaders.

Staffing more broadly has been a concern for Starbucks and its employees, fueling a wave of union elections across hundreds its stores. Past management teams have cut down on the labor allotted to stores, helping profit margins at the cost of burning out baristas and slowing service.

Under Niccol, Starbucks is changing the trend. The company is accelerating plans to roll out its new Green Apron labor model by the end of the summer, because tests have shown that it improves service times and boosts traffic. As part of the model, managers will have more input on how much labor their store needs.

And Chief Partner Officer Sara Kelly received a standing ovation from the crowd for her announcement that most North American locations will receive a full-time, dedicated assistant store manager next year.

“For much of the time, your store is operating without you there, and you share that even when you’re not in the store, you’re not able to fully disconnect, and it can feel like the weight of everything is on your shoulders. … It affects everything, the partner experience, the customer experience, the performance of your store,” Kelly said, addressing the store managers in the audience.

Underscoring the challenges Niccol faces in recapturing the company’s brand, the two speakers who scored the most applause from store managers are no longer actively involved in the company.

Former chairwoman Mellody Hobson scored standing ovations during both her entry and exit onto the arena’s stage. Hobson, wiping tears from her eyes, thanked the Starbucks employees whom she said always made her feel welcome in their stores.

She stepped down from her position earlier this year, ending a roughly two-decade tenure that culminated with her becoming the first African American woman to become the independent chair of a Fortune 500 company. Hobson also serves as co-CEO of Ariel Investments.

Hobson ceded her position as chair of the board to Niccol when he joined the company in September. Niccol credited her with poaching him from Chipotle as Starbucks sought to find a leader who could turn around its flailing business.

“A quick conversation [with Hobson] turned into something really special for me,” Niccol said.

And Hobson’s longtime friend Howard Schultz also earned standing ovations from store managers.

Schultz, the three-time CEO who grew Starbucks from a small chain into a coffee powerhouse, made a surprise appearance at the Leadership Experience on Wednesday morning. It marked the first time that he’s appeared with Niccol publicly since the board tossed out his handpicked successor, Laxman Narasimhan, and selected the then-Chipotle CEO to take the reins.

Starbucks has long been plagued by questions about its succession, given Schultz’s former willingness to return to the helm of the company. But since Niccol’s appointment, industry analysts have thought that he might finally be the CEO who manages to escape Schultz’s lingering influence over the coffee giant.

The ghost of Schultz lingered earlier in the event. Niccol shared a story about being inspired hearing Schultz speak at Yum Brands, Niccol’s then-employer, back in 2008. The 71-year-old chairman emeritus also appeared in video form on Tuesday afternoon to thank Hobson for her service to the company.

During his conversation with Niccol on Wednesday, Schultz co-signed his plan to get “back to Starbucks,” saying that he did a cartwheel in his living room the first time that he heard about it.

He also asked managers to bring that energy back to their own Starbucks locations.

“Be true to the coffee, be true to your partners,” Schultz told the audience. “And I know we’re going to come out of here … like a tidal wave and surprise and delight the world and prove all those cynics wrong again, just as we did in 1987.”

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

This Time Technology Beats Financials

After a week of no changes, we’re back with renewed sector movements, and it’s another round of leapfrogging.

This week, technology has muscled its way back into the top five sectors at the expense of financials, highlighting the ongoing volatility in the market.

Communication Services and Consumer Staples have swapped places since last week, while Technology has entered at number five, pushing Financials down to sixth. The remaining sectors from seven to eleven remain unchanged.

This constant shuffling is a clear indicator of the market’s indecision. Imho, such volatility usually doesn’t accompany a sustainable trend, and that’s precisely what’s hurting trend-following models right now.

  1. (1) Industrials – (XLI)
  2. (2) Utilities – (XLU)
  3. (4) Communication Services – (XLC)*
  4. (3) Consumer Staples – (XLP)*
  5. (6) Technology – (XLK)*
  6. (5) Financials – (XLF)*
  7. (7) Real-Estate – (XLRE)
  8. (8) Materials – (XLB)
  9. (9) Consumer Discretionary – (XLY)
  10. (10) Healthcare – (XLV)
  11. (11) Energy – (XLE)

Weekly RRG Analysis

On the weekly Relative Rotation Graph, the Technology sector is showing impressive strength. Its tail is well-positioned in the improving quadrant, nearly entering the leading quadrant with a strong RRG heading. This movement explains Technology’s climb back into the top ranks.

Industrials remains the only top-five sector still inside the leading quadrant on the weekly RRG. It continues to gain relative strength, moving higher on the JdK RS-Ratio axis, while slightly losing relative momentum. All in all, this tail is still in good shape.

Utilities, Communication Services, and Consumer Staples are all currently in the weakening quadrant. Utilities and Staples show negative headings but maintain high RS-Ratio readings, giving them room to potentially curl back up. Communication Services is losing ground on the RS-Ratio scale but starting to pick up relative momentum.

Daily RRG: A Different Picture

Switching our focus to the daily RRG reveals a somewhat different story:

  • Industrials has moved into the lagging quadrant, losing ground on the RS-Ratio scale
  • Utilities and Staples are rolling back into the lagging quadrant with negative headings — not a great sign
  • Communication Services remains close to the benchmark
  • Technology shows the strongest tail, nearly completing a leading-weakening-leading rotation

This daily view underscores the strength we’re seeing in the Technology sector on the weekly timeframe.

Industrials: Facing Resistance

XLI dropped back below its previous high after a strong showing the week prior. There’s significant resistance between $142.50 and $145.

In a worst-case scenario, I think XLI could even retreat to the gap area between $137.50 and $139.

The uptrend remains intact, but more buying power is needed for a convincing break to new highs.

Utilities: Range-Bound

XLU is now trading in a range between roughly $80 on the downside and $83 on the upside.

It needs to break above the former high to continue building relative strength.

The raw RS line has returned to its trading range, dragging both RRG lines lower — not the strongest outlook for this defensive sector.

Communication Services: Testing Resistance

The sector peaked almost exactly at resistance offered by its previous high around $105, then closed at the lower end of the bar.

The raw RS line is managing to stay within its rising channel, albeit horizontally.

A sustained upward price movement is crucial for maintaining relative strength here.

Consumer Staples: Struggling to Break Higher

XLP continues to face heavy overhead resistance between $82 and $83.

Its inability to break higher is starting to hurt relative strength.

The raw RS line has moved down from a recent high, dragging the RRG lines lower.

The RS-Momentum line has already crossed below 100, positioning the weekly tail inside the weakening quadrant.

Technology: The Comeback Kid

XLK, the new kid on the block (again), tested its overhead resistance level around $244, peaking slightly above it last week before closing lower.

Recent strength has pushed the raw RS line convincingly higher, taking out its previous peak from mid-December.

Both RRG lines are pointing strongly upward, with RS-Momentum already above 100 and RS-Ratio rapidly approaching 100.

Portfolio Performance

With all this sector leapfrogging, especially involving the heavyweight Technology sector, the gap between the top five sectors’ performance and SPY has widened to around 7%.

The drawdown continues, but I’m sticking with this experiment and trusting the model to come back and start beating SPY again.

Yes, a 7% lag sounds significant (and it is), but it can change rapidly in such a concentrated portfolio. One or two strong weeks could easily turn this performance around, particularly if big sectors like Technology and potentially Consumer Discretionary become part of the top five.

#StayAlert and have a great week. –Julius


FMR Resources Limited (ASX:FMR) (FMR or Company) is pleased to announce it has entered into a conditional Binding Term Sheet giving it the right to earn up to a 60% interest in a highly prospective copper-gold-molybdenite project in central Chile (Transaction). The Company will joint venture (JV) into selected tenements (the JV Tenements or Concessions) within the Llahuin Project (Llahuin or the Project) held by Southern Hemisphere Mining Ltd (SUH) which overlie the Southern Porphyry Target.

Highlights

  • Large Cu-Au-Mo porphyry target untested at depth
  • Coincidental datasets suggest substantial copper porphyry system
  • Shallow historic drilling confirms porphyry mineralisation above target
  • Drilling of targets to commence early Q4 2025
  • Oliver Kiddie joins FMR as Managing Director
  • Firm commitments received for $2.2m capital raising at $0.16 through a placement to existing and new sophisticated investors
  • Mark Creasy to join the FMR register as major shareholder

The Southern Porphyry JV gives FMR exposure to a potential Company-making discovery. Coincidental datasets captured across the Southern Porphyry target area suggest a large, untested copper porphyry system below historic exploration. With proven fertility along a ~6km corridor at Llahuin, including historic shallow copper porphyry mineralisation directly above the Southern Porphyry target, this JV delivers FMR drill-ready targets for Q4 2025. The Company looks forward to updating shareholders as we progress towards maiden drilling of these exciting targets.

In conjunction, FMR is pleased to announce the appointment of Oliver Kiddie as Managing Director. Mr Kiddie is a geologist with over 20 years’ experience across exploration, resource definition, project development, and production throughout Australia and internationally. He has extensive experience in base metal and gold exploration through senior management, executive, and directorship positions, including Dominion Mining, European Goldfields, the Creasy Group, and Legend Mining.

Oliver Kiddie said:“I am very excited to be joining the FMR team as the Company expands its exploration portfolio with the Llahuin Project in Chile. I look forward to leading the Company through the next stage of growth and working with the experienced SUH team as the compelling Southern Porphyry drill targets are tested in Q4 this year, with the clear aim of a Company-making discovery.”

Project Description

Porphyry-style Cu-Au-Mo mineralisation identified to date at the Llahuin Project is largely hosted in three main mineralised zones – the Central Porphyry Zone, Cerro do Oro and Ferrocarril, which occur along a +2.5 km N-S strike (open north and south, with a total strike length of up 6 km). These zones are coincident with a north-south trending valley, potentially reflecting weathering of more regressive units or a structure.

Llahuin was initially acquired in July 2011 by SUH through an intermediary from Antofagasta plc. Drilling completed across the project to date comprises 296 holes for 64,503m with a total of 62 holes for 11,927m completed on the JV Tenements, of which 9,156m reports to the Ferrocarril zone and are therefore not relevant to the Southern Porphyry Target. Drilling has resulted in the delineation of Mineral Resources which do not form part of the JV and do not form part of the transaction (see Figures 1 and 7).

In addition to drilling SUH has completed extensive geochemical and geophysical surveys at Llahuin, including detailed magnetics (MAG), induced polarisation (IP), and magnetotellurics (MT). These datasets have indicated a “blind” porphyry-style target at the southern end of the Llahuin Project named the Southern Porphyry Target. This target is defined by a coincident magnetic anomaly, IP resistivity anomaly, and MT resistivity anomaly. The target is modelled as a circular feature 1.5km – 2km in diameter and centred approximately 1,000m below surface (see Figures 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5).

Click here for the full ASX Release

This post appeared first on investingnews.com

Anne Wojcicki, the co-founder and former CEO of 23andMe, has regained control over the embattled genetic testing company after her new nonprofit, TTAM Research Institute, outbid Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, the company announced Friday.

TTAM will acquire substantially all of 23andMe’s assets for $305 million, including its Personal Genome Service and Research Services business lines as well as telehealth subsidiary Lemonaid Health. It’s a big win for Wojcicki, who stepped down from her role as CEO when 23andMe filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in March.

Last month, Regeneron announced it would purchase most of 23andMe’s assets for $256 million after it came out on top during a bankruptcy auction. But Wojcicki submitted a separate $305 million bid through TTAM and pushed to reopen the auction. TTAM is an acronym for the first letters of 23andMe, according to The Wall Street Journal.

“I am thrilled that TTAM Research Institute will be able to continue the mission of 23andMe to help people access, understand and benefit from the human genome,” Wojcicki said in a statement.

23andMe gained popularity because of its at-home DNA testing kits that gave customers insight into their family histories and genetic profiles. The five-time CNBC Disruptor 50 company went public in 2021 via a merger with a special purpose acquisition company. At its peak, 23andMe was valued at around $6 billion.

The company struggled to generate recurring revenue and stand up viable research and therapeutics businesses after going public, and it has been plagued by privacy concerns since hackers accessed the information of nearly seven million customers in 2023.

TTAM’s acquisition is still subject to approval by the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the Eastern District of Missouri.

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

An attempt to break out of a month-long consolidation fizzled out as the Nifty declined and returned inside the trading zone it had created for itself. Over the past five sessions, the markets consolidated just above the upper edge of the trading zone; however, this failed to result in a breakout as the markets suffered a corrective retracement. The trading range stayed wider on anticipated lines; the Index oscillated in a 749-point range over the past week. The volatility rose; the India Vix climbed 3.08% to 15.08 on a weekly basis. The headline Index closed with a net weekly loss of 284.45 points (-1.14%).

We have a fresh set of geopolitical tensions to deal with Israel attacking Iran. The global equity markets are likely to remain affected, and India will be no exception to this. Having said this, the Indian markets are relatively stronger than their peers and are likely to stay that way. Despite the negative reaction to the global uncertainties, Nifty has shown great resilience and has remained in the 24500-25100 trading zone, in which it has been trading for over a month now. There are high possibilities that over the coming week, the Nifty may stay volatile and oscillate in a wide range, but it is unlikely to create any directional bias. A sustainable trend would emerge only after Nifty takes out 25100 on the upside or violates the 24500 level.

The levels of 25100 and 25300 are likely to act as resistance points in the coming week. The supports are likely to come in at 24500 and 24380.

The weekly RSI stands at 57.67; it stays neutral and does not show any divergence against the price. The weekly MACD is bullish and remains above its signal line.

The pattern analysis of the weekly chart shows that the Nifty has failed to break above the rising trendline resistance. This trendline begins from 21150 and joins the subsequent higher bottoms. Besides this, it reinforces the 25100 level as a strong resistance point. For any trending upmove to emerge, it would be crucial for the Index to move past this level convincingly.

Overall, it is unlikely that the Nifty will violate the 24500 levels. The options data shows very negligible call writing below 24500 strikes, increasing the possibility of this level staying defended over the coming days. Unless there is a situation with more gravity to be dealt with, the markets may stay largely in a defined trading range. The sector rotation stays visible in favor of traditionally defensive pockets and low-beta stocks. We continue to recommend a cautious stance as long as the Index does not move past the 25100 level and stays above that point. Until then, a highly stock-specific approach is recommended while guarding profits at higher levels.


Sector Analysis for the coming week

In our look at Relative Rotation Graphs®, we compared various sectors against the CNX500 (NIFTY 500 Index), representing over 95% of the free-float market cap of all the listed stocks. 

Relative Rotation Graphs (RRG) show that the Nifty Midcap 100 has rolled inside the leading quadrant and is set to outperform the broader markets relatively. The Nifty PSU Bank and PSE Indices are also inside the leading quadrant; however, they are giving up on their relative momentum.

The Nifty Infrastructure Index has rolled into the weakening quadrant. The Banknifty, Services Sector Index, Consumption, Financial Services, and Commodities Sector Indices are also inside the weakening quadrant. While stock-specific performance may be seen, the collective relative outperformance may diminish.

The Nifty FMCG Index languishes in the lagging quadrant. The Metal and Pharma Indices are also in the lagging quadrant, but they are improving their relative momentum against the broader Nifty 500 Index.

The Nifty Realty, Media, Auto, and Energy Sector Indices are inside the improving quadrant; they may continue improving their relative performance against the broader markets.


Important Note: RRG charts show the relative strength and momentum of a group of stocks. In the above Chart, they show relative performance against NIFTY500 Index (Broader Markets) and should not be used directly as buy or sell signals.  


Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA

Consulting Technical Analyst

www.EquityResearch.asia | www.ChartWizard.ae

U.S. President Donald Trump said on Friday that concerns over national security risks posed by Nippon Steel’s $14.9 billion bid for U.S. Steel can be resolved if the companies fulfill certain conditions that his administration has laid out, paving the way for the deal’s approval.

Shares of U.S. Steel rose 3.5% on the news in after-the-bell trading as investors bet the deal was close to done. Trump, in an executive order, said conditions for resolving the national security concerns would be laid out in an agreement, without providing details. “I additionally find that the threatened impairment to the national security of the United States arising as a result of the Proposed Transaction can be adequately mitigated if the conditions set forth in section 3 of this order are met,” Trump said in the order, which was released by the White House.

The companies thanked Trump in a news release, saying the agreement includes $11 billion in new investments to be made by 2028 and governance commitments including a golden share to be issued to the U.S. government. They did not detail how much control the golden share would give the U.S. Shares of U.S. Steel had dipped earlier on Friday after a Nippon Steel executive told the Japanese Nikkei newspaper that its planned takeover of U.S. Steel required “a degree of management freedom” to go ahead after Trump earlier had said the U.S. would be in control with a golden share.

The bid, first announced by Nippon Steel in December 2023, has faced opposition from the start. Both Democratic former President Joe Biden and Trump, a Republican, asserted last year that U.S. Steel should remain U.S.-owned, as they sought to woo voters ahead of the presidential election in Pennsylvania, where the company is headquartered.

Biden in January, shortly before leaving office, blocked the deal on national security grounds, prompting lawsuits by the companies, which argued the national security review they received was biased. The Biden White House disputed the charge.

The steel companies saw a new opportunity in the Trump administration, which began on January 20 and opened a fresh 45-day national security review into the proposed merger in April.

But Trump’s public comments, ranging from welcoming a simple “investment” in U.S. Steel by the Japanese firm to floating a minority stake for Nippon Steel, spurred confusion.

At a rally in Pennsylvania on May 30, Trump lauded an agreement between the companies and said Nippon Steel would make a “great partner” for U.S. Steel. But he later told reporters the deal still lacked his final approval, leaving unresolved whether he would allow Nippon Steel to take ownership.

Nippon Steel and the Trump administration asked a U.S. appeals court on June 5 for an eight-day extension of a pause in litigation to give them more time to reach a deal for the Japanese firm. The pause expires Friday, but could be extended.

June 18 is the expiration date of the current acquisition contract between Nippon Steel and U.S. Steel, but the firms could agree to postpone that date

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

Three sectors stand out, with one sporting a recent breakout that argues for higher prices. Today’s report will highlight three criteria to define a leading uptrend. First, price should be above the rising 200-day SMA. Second, the price-relative should be above its rising 200-day SMA. And finally, leaders should trade at or near 52-week highs. Let’s compare the Utilities SPDR (XLU) to see how it stacks up.

The CandleGlance charts below show the top five sectors and SPY. I am ranking performance using Fast Stochastics (255,1). Stochastic values reflect the level of the close relative to the high-low range over the given period. 255 trading days is around 1 year. An ETF is at a 52-week high when the value is above 99 (XLK) and an ETF is near a new high with a value above 90 (XLU). The CandleGlance charts show XLK, XLI and XLU with values above 90, which means the are near new highs.

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TrendInvestorPro is following the breakout in XLU, the bull flag in GLD, a small wedge in AMLP, a breakout in XLP and more. We also covered trailing stop alternatives for the pennant breakouts in some key tech related ETFs. Take a trial and get three free bonus reports.

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Now let’s turn to price action. XLU is trading above its rising 200-day SMA. Thus, the long-term trend is up. XLU also broke falling channel resistance in early May. The pink lines show a falling channel that retraced around 61.8% of the July-December advance (23.6%). Both the pattern and the retracement amount are typical for corrections within a bigger uptrend. The early May breakout signals a continuation of the long-term uptrend and new highs are expected. The May lows mark first support at 78. A close below this level would warrant a re-evaluation.

And finally, let’s measure relative performance using the price-relative (XLU/RSP ratio). The lower window shows the price-relative in an uptrend for over a year and above its 200-day SMA since early March. This shows long-term relative strength. The pink trendlines show relative performance corrections when XLU underperformed for short periods. XLU is currently experiencing an underperformance correction because the broader market surge from early April to early June.

TrendInvestorPro is following the breakout in XLU, the bull flag in GLD, a small wedge in AMLP, a breakout in XLP and more. We also covered trailing stop alternatives for the pennant breakouts in some key tech related ETFs. Click here to learn more and gain immediate access.

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Catching a sector early as it rotates out of a slump is one of the more reliable ways to get ahead of an emerging trend. You just have to make sure the rotation has enough strength to follow through.

On Thursday morning, as the markets maintained a cautiously bullish tone, I checked the New Highs panel on the StockCharts Dashboard, scanning the 1-, 3-, 6-, and 9-month highs list. A clear theme emerged—biotech and healthcare stocks dominated the shorter-term highs.

Seeing strength in healthcare and biotech, I checked the Market Summary BPI panel to compare breadth across sectors. Healthcare posted a 63.93% reading—an early sign the sector may be turning higher.

Comparing the broader sector with the biotech industry, the Key Ratios – Offense vs. Defense panel showed that Biotech outperformed Healthcare by a modest 2.31% over the past three months. This panel compares the SPDR S&P Biotech ETF (XBI), which represents the biotech sector, with the broader Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLV).

Are Biotech and Healthcare Starting a Bullish Rotation?

So, are we seeing an early rotation of both industry and sector toward the upside, and could either be shaping up as an opportunity for investment? Let’s take a comparative look at both relative to the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), our broad market stand-in.

Comparing XBI and XLV to SPY: Signs of Leadership?

FIGURE 1. PERFCHARTS OF XBI, XLV, AND SPY. This is typical of what you’d see during an early-stage rotation.

This PerfCharts view shows a one-year snapshot of relative performance, with biotech lagging behind healthcare, and both trailing the SPY in negative territory. Yet XBI and XLV are showing signs of recovery, with XBI exhibiting a sharper angle of ascent.

Seasonal Strength in Healthcare and Biotech Stocks

Now here’s an interesting addition to the current analysis: what if we considered the industry and the sector from a seasonality perspective? The reason for this is that certain sectors and the industries within them tend to exhibit recurring patterns of strength or weakness during specific times of the year. If we’re seeing a potential turning point in either, could a seasonality lens offer additional insight or clarity to the analysis?

Biotech Seasonality: Strong Months for XBI

Let’s start with XBI, and notice how it’s now entering a cluster of seasonally-favorable months.

FIGURE 2. SEASONALITY CHART OF XBI. The industry is entering a cluster of seasonally strong months.

According to this 10-year seasonality chart, June, July, August, and November tend to be strong months for XBI, with positive closing rates well above 50% (see figures above each bar) and higher-than-average returns (see figures at the bottom of the bars). Among them, June and November stand out as XBI’s strongest seasonal months.

XLV Seasonality: November Still Reigns

FIGURE 3. SEASONALITY CHART OF XLV.  According to this, July is XLV’s second-strongest month after November.

XLV’s seasonal profile shares a similar pattern, with a few key differences. July emerges as XLV’s second-strongest month, boasting a close rate of 89% and an average return of 3.1%. Like XBI, November is XLV’s top month in terms of average return.

What this tells us is that the biotech industry and the broader healthcare sector have historically performed well during these periods (especially November), suggesting that seasonal strength could serve as a tailwind if the current rotation continues to build momentum.

Charting the Rotation: XBI Trend Structure Shows Some Clarity

Next, let’s take a look at their current price action, starting with a daily chart of XBI.

FIGURE 4. DAILY CHART OF XBI. Notice how the trend structure is well-defined by the Fibonacci retracement, providing clear measurements for you to gauge the subsequent directionality once the market decides which way XBI will go.

XBI’s price action shows it reversed at the 50% Fibonacci Retracement level (November high to April low). Will the bears take control, or will XBI’s near-term reaction strengthen into an uptrend, eventually pushing XBI past the 61.8% retracement level, a threshold wherein bears may fold their positions and bulls increase theirs?

In light of the latter, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 61 and rising, indicating room for upside, but only under the condition that the current bullish swing maintains its trajectory.

A few actionable tips. If you’re bullish on XBI and planning to add it to your portfolio, consider the following:

  • If XBI were to pull back deeper, watch to see if it bounces near the last recent swing low area at $76.
  • If XBI reverses to the upside, expect resistance at the 61.8% Fib retracement at around $91. Also, watch the yellow-shaded zone around $94, an area of concentrated trading activity which may also act as a strong resistance zone.

If XBI rotates in a bullish fashion, these key levels can help guide your analysis.

XLV Technical Setup: Strength, But Not Yet a Breakout

Next, shift over to a daily chart of XLV. You’ll notice it’s quite different despite also exhibiting a recovery.

FIGURE 5. DAILY CHART OF XLV. Unlike the previous example, XLV’s price action is more muddled.

XLV’s recovery doesn’t appear as convincing just yet, as it still needs to clear multiple swing highs and resistance levels clustered between $139 and $141 (highlighted in green). If it manages to break above this zone, the next resistance range—shaded in yellow—sits between $148 and $150. In short, the sector proxy faces several hurdles and technical headwinds ahead.

The RSI, at 58 and rising, is nowhere near overbought territory, but it may not immediately indicate bullishness unless XLV is able to establish an uptrend. For now, it isn’t clear if that will happen, so exercise caution.

From an actionable standpoint, the current technical structure doesn’t offer a clear entry setup. That’s largely because the trend lacks a well-defined sequence of higher swing highs and higher swing lows—something you’d typically look for when establishing favorable entry and exit positions.

At the Close

If healthcare and biotech are starting to rotate higher, XBI and XLV are the charts to watch. XBI shows a stronger trend structure, while XLV still faces resistance.  With seasonality on their side, add them to your ChartLists to track key levels and price action.


Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

With Friday’s pullback after a relatively strong week, the S&P 500 chart appears to be flashing a rare but powerful signal that is quite common at major market tops. The signal in question is a bearish momentum divergence, formed by a pattern of higher highs in price combined with lower peaks in momentum, which indicates weakening buying power after an extended bullish phase.

Today, we’ll share a brief history lesson of previous market tops starting with the COVID peak in 2020. And while we don’t necessarily see a sudden downdraft as the most likely outcome, this bearish price and momentum structure suggests limited upside for the S&P 500 until and unless this divergence is invalidated.

First, let’s review some classic market tops, see how divergences are formed, and learn what often comes next.

The year 2020 started in a position of strength, continuing the uptrend phase of 2019. But conditions soon deteriorated, with weaker momentum and breadth signals flashing cautionary patterns. In the chart below, we can see the higher highs and higher lows in price action in January and February 2020.

Notice how the RSI was overbought at the January peak but not overbought at the February top? This pattern of higher prices on weaker momentum is what we’re looking for, as it implies a lack of buying power and therefore limited upside.

Almost two years later, the market had been driven higher due to an unprecedented amount of liquidity injected into the financial system. Toward the end of 2021, however, we saw the familiar bearish divergence flash again.

Here, we can see the higher price highs in November 2021 through January 2022 were marked by lower readings on momentum indicators like RSI. It’s worth noting here that these divergences don’t happen in a vacuum. In other words, we can use other tools in the technical analysis toolkit to evaluate the trend and determine if the price is reacting as expected to the bearish divergence.

In the weeks after the 2022 peak, we can see that the price broke down through an ascending 50-day moving average. The RSI eventually broke below the 40 level, confirming the rotation from a bullish phase to a bearish phase. So while the divergence itself does not imply a particular path in the months after the signal, it alerts us to use other indicators to validate and track a subsequent downtrend move.

More recently, the February 2025 market peak featured some classic momentum patterns going into the eventual top.

Starting in August 2024, we can see a series of higher price highs that were accompanied by improving RSI peaks. As the price was moving higher, the stronger momentum readings confirmed the uptrend phase. Then, starting December 2024, the next couple price peaks were marked with weaker momentum readings. This bearish divergence with price and RSI once again signaled waning momentum going into a major market peak.

That brings us to the current S&P 500 chart, featuring yet another bearish momentum divergence. And based on what we’ve reviewed so far, you can probably understand why I’m a bit skeptical going into next week!

To be fair, I’ve highlighted price and momentum divergences from significant market tops, many of which came after extended bull market phases. In this case, we’re still only two months off a major market low. However, I would argue the basic premise still holds true. With Friday’s pullback, the S&P 500 appears to be flashing this same pattern of higher prices on weaker momentum. Considering this negative rotation on momentum, I would anticipate at least a retest of the May swing low around 5770.

What would change this tactical bearish expectation? The only way for a bearish divergence to be negated is for the price to continue higher on stronger momentum. So, until we see the price make a new peak combined with the RSI pushing back up to overbought levels, a pullback may be the most likely scenario in the coming weeks.

RR#6,

Dave

P.S. Ready to upgrade your investment process? Check out my free behavioral investing course!


David Keller, CMT

President and Chief Strategist

Sierra Alpha Research LLC

marketmisbehavior.com

https://www.youtube.com/c/MarketMisbehavior


Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

The author does not have a position in mentioned securities at the time of publication. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.