Platinum demand depends on auto sector

As for China, data from the China Passenger Car Association shows retail auto sales fell by 8.1 percent in November and dropped by 1.1 percent month over month; however, exports rose 52 percent to a record high of 601,000 units.

“New-energy vehicle sales grew only 4.2 percent year over year, undershooting expectations and reinforcing the theme that the domestic EV momentum is cooling faster than previously assumed,” said Hasan.’The export boom, however, keeps Chinese production elevated and sustains global palladium demand through foreign-market supply chains.”

The global slowdown in EV sales is also beneficial to palladium’s demand prospects. Reuters reported that global EV sales rose by just 6 percent in November on flat sales out of China and a 42 percent drop in North America after the Trump Administration ended the EV tax credit scheme. That’s the slowest growth rate since February of 2024.

“Slower electrification limits the speed of substitution away from palladium-heavy combustionengines, extending the life cycle of auto catalyst demand at a time when supply growth remainsan open question,” Hasn stated.

Looking into 2026, S&P Global sees the outlook for light-vehicle production being dependent on changing US trade policies and emissions standards. Consumer demand could be weighed down by the extra costs brought about by tariffs.

“The broader pattern suggests flattish global production trends for 2026, a scenario that keeps palladium demand growth steady but not spectacular,” Hasn explained.

Another factor that may impact palladium demand in the coming year is the premium reversal and the potential for auto makers to swap platinum for palladium in autocatalysts. Historically, for the most part palladium has traded at a premium to platinum; however, this trend reversed in late 2025 as the platinum market is facing a large supply deficit for the year.

In its September 2025 market update, the World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC) reported at that time that platinum prices over the preceding twelve months were trading at an average premium of US$59 per ounce to palladium prices. The WPIC said it “expects reverse substitution (i.e. palladium for platinum) to reach 250 koz by 2029f. With palladium now benefitting from reverse substitution, palladium will also relatively benefit (versus platinum) from China 7 emission legislation which we have added into our forecasts from 2028f.”

As of December 17, platinum is trading at a premium of more than US$250 compared to palladium.

Palladium supply facing challenges

Palladium’s price peaks in 2025 are not all related to demand. Production and logistics challenges are also driving prices for the metal. The two geographic regions to watch for supply side trends are Russia and South Africa, by far the two biggest palladium producing countries. Together, they account for more than three-quarters of global palladium production. In Russia, palladium is mainly a by-product of nickel and copper mining, whereas in South Africa the metal is mined as a by-product or co-product of platinum.

In South Africa, platinum and palladium mining operations have been plagued by heavy rain and flooding in 2025. The nation’s mining industry has already been suffering under an energy crisis marked by frequent power outages. To further compound the supply problem, maturing deposits are becoming more expensive to mine and a lack of significant capital investment has led to a dearth of new projects.

In Russia, palladium output is traditionally dependent upon the economic and operational viability of its nickel mines. Since the country’s invasion of Ukraine, logistical challenges have erupted all along the palladium supply chain from mining to export as sanctions and trade restrictions have tightened. This includes the removal of Russian refiners from the London Platinum and Palladium Market ‘Good Delivery Lists’.

Another supply side challenge came in mid-2025 when American palladium producer Sibanye-Stillwater (NYSE:SBSW) headed up a petition requesting that the US International Trade Commission (ITC) investigate anti-dumping and countervailing duties on Russian unwrought palladium. Russian palladium represents about 40 percent of US imports of the metal.

The ITC found that dumped and subsidized Russian palladium imports do pose a threat to the US palladium industry. The Department of Commerce is now conducting a full investigation into the dumping margins and subsidies of Russian unwrought palladium. A determination is expected in January 2026, followed by the final phase of the ITC investigation to be completed in May 2026.

Sterck said the outcome could have an impact on the substitution of platinum for palladium in catalytic converters. “I think going into next year, we should get greater clarity on these investigations, and it’s certainly something that we’ll be watching in terms of trying to inform our estimates for 2026 as a whole,” he added.

In its September 20205 market update, the WPIC projected that the palladium market will likely post supply deficits for 2025 and 2026 before moving into a surplus. That’s with palladium mine supply forecast to decline by 1.1 percent CAGR between 2024 and 2029.

“Notably, the forecast of palladium going into surplus is entirely contingent on recycling supply growth. If this does not materialise then palladium could remain in a deficit for the foreseeable future, which could materially alter palladium value expectations,” stated the report.

Palladium price forecast for 2026

The palladium market is notoriously volatile and highly sensitive to economic swings and supply disruptions. All of this makes forecasting palladium prices challenging.

Precious metals industry service provider Heraeus Precious Metals’ 2026 palladium price forecast is representative of the uncertainty prevalent in this segment of the market. The firm is projecting that prices for the metal will trade in a range of US$950 to US$1,500 next year.

Palladium may face a widening surplus as battery electric vehicles gain market share,” said Henrik Marx, Head of Trading at Heraeus Precious Metals. This would likely place downward pressure on palladium price. However, the firm’s report points out that the metal’s price may receive a boost from a rally in platinum prices.

New York-based precious metals dealer Bullion Exchanges has a base case of US$1,300 to US$1,600 per ounce for palladium in 2026. If EV adoption grows faster than expected, its bearish case for the metal comes in at US$1,100 per ounce. If the supply deficit deepens and Russian palladium faces further sanctions, the firm sees a more bullish case for palladium to soar above US$1,800 per ounce.

Bitcoin and Ether price update

Bitcoin (BTC) was priced at US$88,004.97, up by 3.6 percent over 24 hours.

Bitcoin price performance, December 19, 2025.

Chart via TradingView

Ether (ETH) was priced at US$2,991.30, up by 7.2 percent over the last 24 hours.

Altcoin price update

• XRP (XRP) was priced at US$1.91, up by 5.7 percent over 24 hours.

• Solana (SOL) was trading at US$126.85, up by 7.6 percent over 24 hours.

Today’s crypto news to know

MetaPlanet’s US expansion and OTC trading debut

American Depositary Receipts (ADRs) of BTC treasury company Metaplanet (TSE:3350,OTCQX:MPJPY) began trading today on the US OTC market under the ticker symbol MPJPY, replacing the previously unsponsored MTPLF ticker, according to an announcement from the company.

This step builds on earlier US expansions. The company, which is based in Tokyo, established a wholly-owned subsidiary called Metaplanet Treasury in Miami, Florida, in May 2025 to handle BTC accumulation and treasury operations with up to US$250 million in capital.

The launch is intended to enhance US investor participation in MetaPlanet’s BTC strategy.

Poland’s parliament approves MiCO-aligned crypto bill over veto

Poland’s lower house of parliament, called the Sejm, approved a crypto-asset market bill today, overriding President Karol Nawrocki’s prior veto. It now heads to the Senate for review, where it potentially faces another veto.

President Nawrocki vetoed the bill earlier in December, citing threats to civil liberties like easy website blocks. Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s government resubmitted the bill, unchanged. It passed with 241 votes.

The bill aligns Poland with the EU’s MiCA regulation by designating the Financial Supervision Authority (KNF) to oversee crypto exchanges, impose sanctions, and introduce criminal liability for offenses.

US Senate confirms Mike Selig as CFTC Chair

The US Senate has confirmed Mike Selig as the next chair of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), bringing permanent leadership back to an agency that has operated for months in near-limbo.

Selig’s confirmation passed 53–43 as part of a broader package of federal appointments. The CFTC had been functioning with a single commissioner, Acting Chair Caroline Pham, after multiple resignations hollowed out the five-member panel.

While Pham kept the agency operational, the lack of a Senate-confirmed chair constrained long-term planning, staffing, and coordination with other regulators.

That gap was especially acute as lawmakers debated expanding the CFTC’s role in overseeing spot crypto markets.

CLARITY Act heads for Senate markup in January

The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act is set to enter Senate markup in January, according to White House crypto and AI adviser David Sacks, putting the bill on a formal path toward passage.

‘We had a great call today with Chairmen @SenatorTimScott and @JohnBoozman who confirmed that a markup for Clarity is coming in January. Thanks to their leadership, as well as @RepFrenchHill and @CongressmanGT in the House, we are closer than ever to passing the landmark crypto market structure legislation that President Trump has called for,’ Sacks posted on X. ‘We look forward to finishing the job in January!’

Senate Banking Chair Tim Scott and Agriculture Chair John Boozman have agreed on the timeline. The bill, which cleared the House earlier this year, aims to settle long-running jurisdiction disputes by spelling out when a token is a security versus a commodity.

Lawmakers are expected to focus amendments on asset classification tests, investor protection standards, and how quickly platforms must register under the new regime.

Another key issue will be how the SEC and CFTC coordinate oversight during the transition period.

If the schedule holds, Congress could finalize a reconciled version later during the year.

Bybit re-enters UK Market via FCA-approved promotion route

Crypto exchange Bybit has resumed operations in the UK after a two-year absence triggered by tighter rules on crypto marketing and promotions.

The platform has restarted spot trading with 100 pairs, using a compliance structure designed to meet the Financial Conduct Authority’s (FCA) financial promotion standards.

Rather than holding its own UK authorization, Bybit is operating under an arrangement with London-based exchange Archax, which is licensed to approve crypto promotions for unauthorised firms.

This route has previously been used by other major exchanges seeking access to British users.

Oil market battles persistent headwinds

2025 saw oil prices fluctuate between highs of US$81.86 (Brent) and US$78.99 (WTI) and lows of US$59.41 and US$55.56, respectively, as the energy market served as a barometer of global political and trade tensions.

“Throughout the year, prices have continued the downtrend they began in April (2024) as OPEC+ continued to hike output and China’s economy continued to struggle under the weight of a flailing property sector, downbeat consumer confidence, overindebted local governments and flagging external demand,” he added.

While the oil market isn’t new to volatility, this year proved different as US President Donald Trump’s on-again, off-again tariffs infused global uncertainty into the energy market.

“We can see that Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs pushed prices down to a level from which they’ve not recovered from, barring a spike in June as a result of the 12 day Iran-Israel war,” said Cunningham.

“Since then, Brent crude oil prices have continued to fall as OPEC+ caught the market off guard with its aggressive output hikes, which were designed to win back market share from non-cartel producers.’

Demand growth, underinvestment reshape oil outlook

Meanwhile, OPEC is approaching full production capacity, with Saudi Arabia being the main exception.

“Even though people are talking about lots of supply, demand is still growing,” Schachter said, noting that global oil demand rose roughly 1.3 million barrels per day in 2025 and is expected to increase by about 1.2 million in 2026.

New supply additions are limited, he explained, mentioning Guyana’s offshore discoveries by ExxonMobil (NYSE:XOM), some output from Brazil and minor contributions from Canada.

“Most basins are tired, and not enough money is being spent to bring on production,” Schachter said, predicting that global inventory drawdowns in 2026 will support higher prices.

Despite lack of investment at the exploration level, FocusEconomics panelists are forecasting a rise in both oil and gas supply in 2026 fueled by output growth at existing operations.

Cunningham pointed to organizations like the EIA and International Energy Agency (IEA), which “hiked their forecasts in recent months in response to OPEC+ increasing output unexpectedly fast and the recent surge in demand for US LNG.”

“The real question is not if oil and gas production will increase, but by how much,” said Cunningham.

A ramp up could be curtailed by geopolitical disruptions, he went on to note.

“Recent frictions between members of the OPEC+ cartel will persist, with Russia likely to favor lower production levels given US sanctions and countries like Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates eager to push production higher given their excess capacity and desire to win back market share from non-OPEC+ producers,” he said.

“Moreover, countries like Kazakhstan and Iraq continue to overshoot their quotas, and in late 2023 Angola left the cartel due to disputes over its allowed production level.”

Transport and petrochemicals driving oil demand

Global oil demand is expected to rise in 2026, driven primarily by transportation fuels and petrochemical feedstocks.

Gasoline is projected to lead the increase, supported by recovering air travel and road mobility, while diesel and other products also contribute. Non-OECD regions, particularly China and India, will account for most of the growth, with expanding petrochemical capacity in major economies boosting crude-derived feedstock demand.

Overall, transport and industrial activity remain the key engines behind the expected rise in oil consumption.

“Our panelists see world oil production rising 1.1 percent in 2026 as non-OPEC+ countries such as Guyana and the US hike output,” said FocusEconomics’ Cunningham.

LNG expansion fuels gas growth

Similar to the trajectory for oil, natural gas demand is expected to rise in 2026 as global consumption rebounds and LNG exports expand sharply. “The IEA (is) estimating growth at around 2 percent with consumption at an all-time high on higher demand in the industrial and electricity sectors,” said Cunningham.

Rising LNG supply — with new export capacity coming online in the US, Canada and Qatar — is projected to support stronger import growth, particularly in Asia, where demand is expected to rebound after a 2025 slowdown.

“Asia is hungry for LNG; the IEA estimates the region’s natural gas demand will rise over 4 percent in 2026, with LNG imports up by 10 percent,” the expert said. Increased use of natural gas in power generation and industrial sectors will also contribute to growth, helping push global gas demand toward a new peak next year.

“Of course, these forecasts could change quickly if the world economy or the oil and gas sector is subject to further shocks, which is why we recommend regularly checking the latest forecasts that are available,” Cunningham added.

Further ahead, Schachter argued that rising global power needs will underpin long-term demand for natural gas, particularly as alternatives struggle to scale. Aging power grids are another constraint. Much of the world’s electricity infrastructure has not been meaningfully upgraded, and expanding capacity will require major investment in transmission — driving demand for copper, steel and aluminum alongside new generation.

Against that backdrop, Schachter sees LNG as central to meeting near- and medium-term power needs.

“The demand for LNG is the story,” he said, adding that natural gas is increasingly viewed not as a temporary transition fuel, but as “the most efficient, from a climate and environmental point of view.”

He also highlighted Canada’s advantage as producers invest heavily in emissions-reduction technologies, including methane mitigation. That positioning could make Canadian LNG more attractive to import-dependent nations such as Japan and South Korea.

While new supply from Qatar and the US will add capacity, Schachter cautioned that LNG development is rarely linear, pointing to Canada’s decades-long path to its first operating export terminal. Despite inevitable delays and short-term imbalances, he said the long-term outlook remains clear: “The industry’s fundamentals are very, very positive.”

Cunningham also pointed to increased output from the US and Qatar as key areas to watch in 2026.

“The big Qatari and US LNG projects will help natural gas prices converge globally — our Consensus Forecast is for the percentage difference between US gas prices (which tend to be lower due to huge domestic production) and those in Asia and Europe to ease to the lowest level since 2020, the year the pandemic sent gas demand plummeting,” said Cunningham, adding, “In short, record US LNG shipments will send up prices at home and lower them abroad.”

Cunningham went on to explain that unlike oil, in the natural gas market there tends to be more price divergence between regions as natural gas is harder to transport over large distances. Oil can be poured into a barrel and shipped, whereas natural gas first needs to be liquified if it’s to be sent overseas. Greater LNG capacity will help bridge this gap.

Oil and gas price forecast for 2026

Schachter expects WTI to average over US$70 in 2026, with Brent around US$73 to US$74.

He anticipates some volatility early in the new year, saying that in Q1 he expects trading to be “still sloppy between US$56 and US$66,” before prices rise in Q2 to US$62 to US$72. From there, he sees prices reaching US$68 to US$78 in the year’s third quarter as inventories tighten and market fundamentals assert themselves.

“People think we’re going back to US$80 today. US$58 oil — it ain’t going to US$80. But when the industry is in rational supply and demand, prices climb, especially when inventories draw down quickly,” Schachter said, recalling the 2008 peak in oil prices near US$147 during extreme supply shortages.

Looking at the year ahead, FocusEconomics expects the trends of 2025 to continue.

“Average Brent crude oil prices will ease further to a post-pandemic low, while US natural gas prices will increase to the highest average level since 2014 barring 2022’s Russia-Ukraine-war-driven spike,” said Cunningham.

“OPEC+ is set to continue raising output — after a pause in Q1 2026 — and the global economy should slow as the boost from export front-loading ahead of US tariff wanes.”

1. Trump Admin Pushes for Uranium Stockpile Boost to Secure Nuclear Power Future

Publish date: September 16, 2025

In September, the Trump administration zeroed in on its plan to reduce uranium reliance on Russia.

A report by Bloomberg outlined that Russia still accounts for approximately a quarter of the fuel used in America’s 94 nuclear reactors, which generate roughly 20 percent of the nation’s electricity.

Secretary of Energy Chris Wright said that the Department of Energy was working to reduce that dependence by rebuilding domestic uranium and enrichment supply chains.

The concept of a federal uranium reserve dates back to 2020, when the first Trump administration sought US$150 million to begin direct purchases from US producers, though Congress approved only half the amount.

Supply concerns sharpened after Russia briefly restricted uranium exports to the US in late 2024, underscoring Washington’s exposure to geopolitical risks.

A law signed in May 2024 requires US utilities to phase out Russian uranium by 2028, with future stockpile levels expected to rise in line with new reactor construction, including small modular reactors.

“We’re moving to a place — and we’re not there yet — to no longer use Russian enriched uranium,” Wright said, adding that the US needs significantly more domestic uranium and enrichment capacity.

2. China Achieves World’s First Thorium-to-Uranium Conversion

Publish date: November 6, 2025

China marked a milestone in 2025 by converting thorium into uranium inside a working molten salt reactor.

The experimental thorium molten salt reactor, developed by the Chinese Academy of Sciences’ Shanghai Institute of Applied Physics in the Gobi Desert, is the first in the world to demonstrate stable thorium-based fission.

The reactor has been operating since reaching first criticality in October 2023 and has now produced data confirming the conversion of thorium-232 into uranium-233, a fissile material capable of sustaining a nuclear chain reaction.

Unlike conventional reactors that use solid uranium fuel rods, the system relies on liquid fuel dissolved in molten fluoride salt, allowing continuous refueling and stable heat generation without shutting down operations.

3. Uranium Energy’s Sweetwater Project Fast Tracked Under Trump Initiative

Publish date: August 6, 2025

In August, Uranium Energy’s (NYSEAMERICAN:UEC) Sweetwater uranium complex in Wyoming was designated for expedited permitting under the Trump administration’s FAST-41 initiative. The initiative is part of a broader strategy to revitalize the US nuclear fuel supply chain and reduce reliance on imports from geopolitical rivals.

The Sweetwater complex, located in Wyoming’s Great Divide Basin, is anchored by a fully licensed conventional uranium mill with a capacity of 3,000 metric tons per day and annual output of 4.1 million pounds.

The site previously included several permitted mines — Sweetwater (Red Desert), Big Eagle and Jackpot (Green Mountain) — and will now be evaluated for in-situ recovery mining, a lower-impact extraction technique.

The new permitting push will allow the company to modify existing approvals to incorporate in-situ recovery capabilities both within and beyond the current mine boundary, including on adjacent federal lands.

Sweetwater is the second uranium project to receive fast-track treatment under the policy, following Anfield Energy’s (TSXV:AEC,NASDAQ:AEC) Velvet-Wood project in Utah, which received the status in May.

4. Denison Mines Moves Closer to Federal Approval for Phoenix ISR Uranium Project

Publish date: February 28, 2025

In February, Denison Mines (TSX:DML,NYSEAMERICAN:DNN) announced that the Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission (CNSC) had scheduled public hearings for its Wheeler River uranium project in Saskatchewan.

The hearings were scheduled for October 8 and December 8 to 12, and according to the company would represent the final stage in the federal environmental assessment process. Denison holds an effective 95 percent interest in Wheeler River, the largest undeveloped uranium project in the Eastern Athabasca Basin. If approved, the company expects to begin site preparation and construction for its Phoenix in-situ recovery uranium project in early 2026.

In its Q3 report, released on November 6, Denison said the first part of the hearing was complete, and that it was expecting a decision from the CNSC in early 2026 after part two of the hearing.

5. Western Australia Reviews Uranium Mining Ban as Nuclear Energy Investment Grows

Publish date: October 2, 2025

Possibly the biggest uranium news in Australia in 2025 was Western Australia’s move to consider lifting its ban on new uranium licenses. In October, ahead of an energy-focused trade mission to China and Japan, Premier Roger Cook signaled the policy might be under review as part of broader strategic development considerations.

China, Western Australia’s largest trading partner, accounts for more than half of the state’s exports.

While the state’s three existing uranium mines continue to operate under previously approved permits, no new developments have been allowed since the ban was put in place in 2017. Cook emphasized that Western Australia intends to respect legal mining leases, while exploring future opportunities.

He also stressed that any change to the uranium policy would likely depend on a “significant shift” in global markets, while the state continues to monitor existing permit holders and potential future projects.